In the 2022 elections, there are 36 governor’s mansions open, 32 senate seats up for grabs, and all 435 seats in the house are on the ballot. This, combined with intense political polarization, makes this year’s midterm elections very important, and the large amount of political events can feel overwhelming. These elections will help you navigate and understand the state of American politics.

Gubernatorial Races

Florida

Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is currently seeking his second term in a highly talked about swing state. Since he is the only Republican running so far, the incumbent candidate (the candidate currently in office), and a nationally recognized figure in American politics, he holds a major advantage in the primaries and the general election. A former member of the House of Representatives, DeSantis originally won the 2018 primaries following an endorsement from then-president Donald Trump.

DeSantis has also been rumored to be a presidential candidate in 2024, so a victory in 2022 would be a large boost for him. However, it could be an interesting dynamic, as Trump also is showing signs of running for president again. If DeSantis is seriously considering a presidential run, Trump could turn on him in 2022. A political twist like that would be a test of two major things: Trump’s hold over the Republican Party, and democrats’ ability to exploit riffs in the GOP.

The current Democratic primary is somewhat crowded, with five people running so far. The primary will likely come down to Representative Charlie Crist and current Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. 

Both leading democrats are running on relatively progressives campaigns, with Crist highlighting a sweeping criminal justice reform plan and Fried supporting a number of improvements, including in education, infrastructure, and affordable housing. What the Democratic primary may come down to is persona: Crist is campaigning as an experienced leader who knows what to do, while Fried’s campaign slogan is “Something New for Florida.” Either way, this election will test the strength of left-wing democrats in swing states.

Michigan

Another high-profile incumbent, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is currently running for her second term as governor of Michigan. Whitmer currently has a number of advantages at her disposal: she is the incumbent, the Republican primary is extremely crowded, and her approval rating has climbed recently. The first female Democratic leader in the Michigan State Senate, Whitmer has long had a place in Michigan politics and won her first governor election in 2018.

Despite relative popularity at the moment, the chances of a red wave overtaking WHitmer are still there. Her controversial covid policies have been protested by Michigan Republicans since their implementation, and she has long been a target for the GOP. Additionally, the breaking of her own covid rules caused outrage in Michigan. 

Whitmer’s biggest challenger, as of right now, is former head of Detroit Police Department and Republican James Craig, who, according to a Click On Detroit poll, “led with 44.6% name identification breaking 17.7% favorable to 9.5% unfavorable.” 

Arizona

Since incumbent Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited, the Arizona governorship is open for grabs. A crowded field of Republicans are vying for the GOP nomination, with Trump-endorsed former TV news anchor Kari Lake being the apparent front runner. Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is the most likely Democratic nominee, but is facing two other primary challengers: former mayor of Nogales, AZ Marco López and State Representative Aaron Lieberman.

Both Lake and Hobbs are controversial figures in their state. Lake has reportedly appeared at a number of events with QAnon supporters and Nazi sympathizers, while Hobbs is still recovering from the firing of a Black State Senate staffer, and the ensuing $2.75 million dollar court case, while she was Arizona Senate minority leader.

While the last gubernatorial election in Arizona was successful for Republicans by a wide margin (Doug Ducey won re-election by more than 14 points), the Cook Political Report rates the election as a “Toss Up,” while Inside Elections rates it as a “Battleground Republican” election.

A Republican victory would stop democrats’ momentum in the state, while a Democratic victory would likely solidify the copper state’s status as a Democratic safe haven. No matter what, there will likely be a lot of resources spent by both parties in Arizona. Both Hobbs and Lake have already spent large sums of money, and it can only go up from here.

Senate Races

Georgia

Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock won a surprise victory in Georgia during the runoff election in 2020, becoming the first Black senator to represent the state and the first democrat to hold his senate seat since 2005. Now he is up for election to a full term, the first statewide election since the passage of Georgia’s voter suppression law.

This law, passed in response to the false statement that Donald Trump won the 2020, mirrors a number of other states’ efforts to curb voting. Many voting rights activists and the Department of Justice have claimed that the new Georgia law is harming voters of color, which made up a larger portion of Warnock’s voters in his 2020 victory.

Currently, the Republican primaries are crowded, with former NFL football star Herschel Walker as the current frontrunner. Walker announced his run following continued encouragement from former President Trump, despite accusations of abuse from his past.

Republicans will prioritize the peach state, as Georgia has, until 2020, been a safely red state. Now that there are two Democratic senators representing the state, and Stacey Abrams is making another run for governor, conservative Georgians will be energized to get out and vote.

Alaska

Alaska’s senate race is important for a number of reasons. First, Alaska recently adopted a ranked-choice voting system, making this one of the few federal-level elections to utilize it. Secondly, Lisa Murkowski was one of the seven Republican senators to vote guilty during Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial and is the only one up for reelection in 2022. If she wins, it could be a sign that Trump’s grip on the Republican Party is waning.

Murkowski is facing off with former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration and Trump-loyalist Kelly Tshibaka. Former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin has also expressed interest in running. On the left flank, Democratic state senator Elvi Gray-Jackson has also considered running. 

Republicans have long held onto Alaska, so a Democratic victory isn’t likely. What will be interesting to see is if Tshibaka can usurp Murkowski; Murkowski has been the target of Trump ever since she voted to impeach him, and she has a very low approval rating among Alaskan voters.

However, Murkowski currently has over $3 million on hand and outraised Tshibaka. Murkowski has also faced far-right opponents before; in 2010, she won reelection as a write-in candidate after losing the Republican nomination to a Tea Party candidate, becoming the second senator ever to win an election as a write-in. 

Murkowski is an incredibly resilient politician, and has held her seat since 2002. It will certainly take a massive campaign from Tshibaka to win, regardless of Murkowski’s voting record and Trump’s persistent attacks

Wisconsin

Incumbent Ron Johnson is seeking a third term in the senate, in a state part of the “blue wall” (states that from 1992 to 2016 have gone to democrats in presidential elections). A loyal Trump supporter, Johnson is likely going to face an uphill battle to reclaim his seat.

The Democratic primary is packed, with at least nine candidates vying for the chance to take on Johnson. Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is the current frontrunner, but other strong challengers like State Treasurer Sara Godlewski and former Obama staffer Alex Larsy could take the nomination.

The crowded Democratic primary could give Johnson the upper hand in his quest to win reelection. However, Johnson won by a much smaller margin in 2016 than he did in 2010, and this trend could continue. But a win for Johnson would show the possible strength MAGA candidates still have in the Midwest.

House Races

Wyoming’s At-Large Congressional District

Rep. Liz Cheney (R) is possibly one of the most consequential politicians in recent years. One of the most vocal critics of President Trump, Cheney has come under fire from Republicans and faces her most difficult reelection bid in recent years.

Cheney faces Harriet Hageman in the Republican primaries, a Trump-endorsed attorney and former governor candidate. A recent straw poll gave Hageman a wide victory, but Cheney has outraised Hageman thus far, and by a significant margin.

Much like Lisa Murkowski’s senate race in Alaska, this race is less of a toss-up and more of a referendum on the standing of the Republican Party. If Cheney can win reelection in Trump-hungry Wyoming, not only will Hageman lose, but so will Donald Trump.

Takeaways

While there are multiple things to pay attention to in the 2022 midterms, including how much influence Trump has on the outcome, how well progressives perform compared to moderates, and how well Democrats perform in a poor political environment for them.